In 2022, 550 million devices of the Internet of things will be connected to 5G networks
(Ericsson forecast)
10 years - just so much goes to the telecommunications industry to introduce a new generation of communication since the 1980s. According to this schedule, the 2020s promise to become a decade of the 5G (5th Generation) standard - networks with a bandwidth of up to 20 Gbit / s.
Its implementation will not only accelerate the mobile Internet and the quality of communication on our smartphones - 5G is intended to become an infrastructure for key technologies of the future: virtual and augmented reality , unmanned vehicles, Internet of things , etc., followed from explanations that the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) 2015.
The technological development of the standard should be completed by 2020. The data transfer rate will increase by 30-50 times in comparison with the previous generation. If the 3G standard reduces the signal delay to 100 milliseconds, 4G to 10 milliseconds, then the 5G is only 1 millisecond.
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The new standard will have to work with a large amount of data: according to Cisco, in 2020 global mobile traffic will grow to 30.6 exabytes per month (1 exabyte - 1 million Tb) - this is 8.3 times more than in 2015 (3.7 exabytes). Also, from 7.9 billion to 11.6 billion, the number of mobile devices connected to the Internet will increase, not only smartphones and tablets, but also items of the Internet of things, for example, gadgets for the "smart" home. Ericsson expects that by 2022, 550 million of these devices will be connected to 5G.
A single network is necessary for the harmonious operation of the ecosystem of new gadgets, which today rely on different protocols. The same applies to unmanned vehicles: for each drone, every day it will be necessary to transfer and process terabytes of data (not only from the sensors of the car itself, but also from cameras, radar, etc.). According to the German automaker BMW, after 2020, the fifth generation network will link up to 70 million "autopilots". Finnish Nokia called 5G a chance to reduce the accident rate on the roads to zero. The technology should help in the development of agriculture (remote management of machinery, monitoring of farmland using drones), industry (management of robotic assembly production, industrial 3D printers), medicine (remote operation via the network in real modetime ) and the entertainment industry (computer games with virtual reality technology with a high level of graphics, high-definition video transmission without delay).
All key markets related to 5G, in the long-term 2020 will surely grow, analysts expect Gartner. Thus, the telecommunications industry will increase from $ 1.4 trillion in 2015 to $ 1.7 trillion in 2020 (the average annual growth rate is 3.9%). The market of wearable devices ("smart" glasses, watches, etc.) over these years will grow from $ 12.5 billion to $ 37.1 billion; the market of equipment for the construction of mobile networks - from $ 40 billion to $ 60 billion; the market of voice services - from $ 900 million to $ 1.1 billion; the mobile applications market - from $ 45.3 billion to $ 162.5 billion.
its application is already widely tested on a limited scale. The development of fifth-generation networks is carried out by all the leading telecommunications operators in the world - American Verizon and AT & T, British Vodafone, Scandinavian Telenor and Teliasonera, etc. The Chinese market for Huawei and ZTE, Korean Samsung, European Nokia and Ericsson and American Cisco and Qualcomm . Follow the development of technology and technology giants Silicon Valley. For example, Google in 2015 launched a secretive program for managing drones through a fifth-generation connection called SkyBender.
China has already established near Beijing, Huairou, the world's largest test station 5G: Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia, ZTE, DTT and Intel are participating in the network testing, Xinhua News Agency reported in March with reference to the Ministry of Industry and Information of the country.
Korean operator SK Telecom in November 2015 announced the achievement of a data transfer rate of 19.1 Gb / s. In 2017, the company hopes to launch the first commercial technology tests. At the same time, Verizon is counting on the commercialization of 5G. In 2018, the innovative communication promises to provide the participants and spectators of the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang Korean operator KT.
MTS and Megafon announced similar plans for the 2018 World Cup in Russia (Megafon in June, and MTS in September 2016 already conducted the first tests of 5G, working on the development of technology and other participants of the Big Four - Vimpelcom and Tele2). The Tokyo Olympics in 2020 will be covered by the operator's 5G network of NTT DoCoMo. China Mobile in December 2016 announced the commercial launch of the standard in China in 2020.
$5 billion
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All these plans will require large-scale investments: according to Markets Reports Hub, the consulting company, until 2020, research expenditures for 5G should be at least $ 5 billion per year.
Technology developers are left with many regulatory issues:
under the auspices of ITU, governments and businesses will have to unify the 5G standards, allocate frequencies in higher bands (new base stations will need to be built), maintain and update the mobile infrastructure (5G networks will work in parallel with the already built networks of previous ones generations). Finally, developers have to believe that their hopes for a technological breakthrough of other new technologies that need the 5G properties will come true. This will entail a large-scale renewal of the mobile "iron" park: users who want to join the future through the fifth generation communication will have to acquire a new smartphone, laptop, fitness tracker , voice assistant, etc.
5g Security:
As with other new technologies, the 5G carries an additional threat.
Intel analyst Matthew Rosenquist considers the most vulnerable industry for which the fifth generation connection increases the risks of data leaks, Internet of things (IoT). With increasing network speed, more physical objects will be connected to it. As a result, hackers will try to gain access to corporate and user information in such sectors as transportation (attacks on control systems of unmanned vehicles based on 5G), health (theft of health data of patients served remotely due to high-speed data transfer in new networks) and the transport of goods by drones (hacking of logistics systems and for the conduct of terrorist attacks using drones that quickly "seize" the signal in 5G networks), warned the expert.
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